#Military & security

Chinese researchers developed a computer simulation suggesting a missile-borne lidar system could detect and track a US F-35 stealth fighter at up to 61.5km. The simulation represents one of seven science highlights from SCMP's coverage of the past two weeks.

The US Navy awarded a US$39.6 million contract on September 28 for three second-hand extended-range King Air 350-series aircraft for the Philippine Coast Guard, two of them modified for improved surveillance. The aircraft will be fitted with extended-range fuel systems and upgraded avionics, giving Manila greater reach and endurance to monitor Chinese coastguard, naval and research vessels across the South China Sea.

The European Parliament voted on Wednesday for a significantly tougher China position, calling Beijing a decisive enabler of Russia and urging continuous European naval presence and joint exercises in and around the Taiwan Strait. The chamber also called for swift action to counter Beijing's industrial policy, which it described as an existential threat.

In December 2022, a Chinese J-11 fighter came within metres of a US RC-135 surveillance plane over the South China Sea; the US military called the manoeuvre unsafe while China blamed the American crew. Both sides released footage but neither accepted the other's account. The article argues that with autonomous fighter jets emerging, the US and China urgently need to establish rules to prevent similar close encounters from escalating.

Former Anthropic and OpenAI researcher Jacob Coxon said he is 90 per cent certain China already has spies inside US AI companies, without providing evidence. Coxon made the allegation in a PBD Podcast interview with Patrick Bet-David, arguing China could steal advances from leading US AI labs and close any technological gap.

The US formally ended its Operation Inherent Resolve mission in Iraq on September 30, completing a withdrawal agreed with Baghdad. Analysts said the move could give Iraq more room for diversified partnerships and indirectly benefit China's energy and commercial interests. However, they noted China lacks both the ambition and capacity to fill the US security role in Iraq.

A federal judge ordered Wanying "Heather" Zhang held in custody, blocking her release. Zhang is accused of being a Beijing agent who filmed the son of a Taiwan leader. US Magistrate Judge Steve Kim sided with prosecutors, who argued Zhang's parents and siblings lived in China, posing a flight risk.

Trump pressed Xi Jinping during last month's summit to end a freeze in relations with Japan's Sanae Takaichi, citing Japan's grievances over Chinese restrictions imposed after Takaichi's November comment about potential military intervention in the Taiwan Strait. Beijing regards Taiwan as a core interest.

Japan and the US will conduct expanded military exercises near Taiwan from October 19 to 29, with about 45,000 Japanese personnel, 6,100 vehicles, 40 ships and 260 aircraft, up from 33,000 personnel, 30 ships and 250 aircraft in 2024. Analysts say the exercises could complicate Beijing's planning for a Taiwan or East China Sea conflict.

Two summits between Presidents Trump and Xi in five months produced shared language but no breakthrough on the Hormuz Strait issue. Xi backed a return to the interim US-Iran agreement during his Washington visit, yet Trump recently rejected Iran's truce proposal and is considering resuming US bombing of Iran. Analysts say China needs to offer more concrete action rather than just diplomatic statements.

CCTV reported that a foreign warship lost power, propulsion and radar while aggressively shadowing a PLA Navy Type 055 destroyer Zunyi during routine training in the South China Sea. The Chinese account describes it as a rare encounter, resembling other incidents involving US Navy destroyers in the region this year.

Former US officials warned at a Global Taiwan Institute symposium that Washington's increasingly transactional approach to Taiwan, tied to its Beijing relationship, puts the Indo-Pacific at risk. Former AIT Taipei Office director Brent Christensen said the war on Iran is weakening US military readiness for a potential Taiwan Strait conflict.

Hong Kong national security police have charged a 52-year-old man with publishing seditious material on social media. The defendant is accused of posting content with intent to provoke hatred towards the central Chinese authorities, the Hong Kong government and the judiciary. The first court hearing took place on Wednesday.

Michael DeSombre, assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, said investors are overestimating the risk of conflict across the Taiwan Strait, arguing that deterrence and substantial consequences would deter Beijing from taking the island by 2027. He said both China and the U.S. don't want conflict. The U.S. has held back approval of a $14 billion arms sales package to Taiwan after a $11 billion package drew Beijing's response.

According to a new analysis, China is running the most systematic effort of any outside power to learn from the drone war in Ukraine, with military and defence-industry analysts typically writing up new battlefield techniques within about four months. However, it usually took a year or more before those lessons showed up publicly in People's Liberation Army training, equipment or force structure.

China's military has opened a new outpost at Ban Keun Airport in northwestern Laos, a site once used by the CIA's Air America during the Vietnam War. The base includes a 2,000-meter runway and parking for 22 aircraft, and began operations on September 29 according to China's Defense Ministry. Analysts downplay the threat to U.S. forces, noting the runway is not positioned as a dagger pointed at any target and questioning its operational necessity.

The Pentagon announced a new initiative worth around US$350 million aimed at maintaining American leadership in quantum computing capabilities. The Office of the Under Secretary of Defence for Research and Engineering said the funding addresses accelerating competition between the US and China over military applications of advanced technology.

Xi Jinping's recent Washington visit showcased pageantry but low expectations, with both sides incentivized to preserve stability. The podcast discusses how Mao Zedong's writings on "strategic stalemate" may inform Xi's current approach, while noting his plan to recruit 100,000 young Americans to study in China over five years. Bloomberg reports also highlight new travel restrictions on AI talent and signals that Beijing recognizes the struggling economy.

Xi Jinping arrived in Washington DC on September 24, 2026. The arrival ceremony featured warm optics. Topics for the visit include PRC nuclear weapons, PLA Daily's editorial on Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, and China's 2025 outbound investment exceeding $200 billion.

This Sinocism show notes previews Xi Jinping's visit to Washington, covering the Scott Bessent-He Lifeng meeting in New York. Outstanding issues include a proposed AI hotline, details on an operationalized trade board, rare earth frustrations that may affect the Busan truce extension, and questions about Taiwan, Iran and Chinese automakers. The September Politburo meeting officially expelled Generals Zhang and Liu, while unverified Xi rumors circulated at the BRICS Summit in India.